{"id":104471,"date":"2026-03-27T17:05:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T14:05:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/kriza-qe-po-troket-a-do-perseritet-skenari-i-viteve-1970\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T17:05:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T14:05:21","slug":"kriza-qe-po-troket-a-do-perseritet-skenari-i-viteve-1970","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/kriza-qe-po-troket-a-do-perseritet-skenari-i-viteve-1970\/","title":{"rendered":"Kriza q\u00eb po troket: a do p\u00ebrs\u00ebritet skenari i viteve 1970?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Kriza<\/figure>\n

Situata aktuale n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme dhe \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs q\u00eb po rriten me shpejt\u00ebsi po sjellin n\u00eb kujtes\u00eb dy krizat e naft\u00ebs t\u00eb viteve 1973 dhe 1979.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, vendet arabe t\u00eb naft\u00ebs ul\u00ebn furnizimin dhe \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs u rrit\u00ebn ndjesh\u00ebm. Shum\u00eb vende per\u00ebndimore u detyruan t\u00eb vendosnin masa shtr\u00ebnguese. Gjermania, nd\u00ebr t\u00eb tjera, vendosi t\u00eb prezantonte kat\u00ebr jav\u00eb pa makina. Po sot?<\/p>\n

Ne po p\u00ebrballemi me \u201ck\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh p\u00ebr sigurin\u00eb energjetike n\u00eb historin\u00eb e njer\u00ebzimit\u201d, tha Fatih Birol t\u00eb h\u00ebn\u00ebn, m\u00eb 23 mars n\u00eb Klubin Komb\u00ebtar t\u00eb Shtypit t\u00eb Australis\u00eb. Kreu i Agjencis\u00eb Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb Energjis\u00eb (IEA) beson se kriza n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e keqe se dy goditjet e naft\u00ebs t\u00eb viteve 1973 dhe 1979 t\u00eb marra s\u00eb bashku.<\/p>\n

\u201cN\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, kishte nj\u00eb munges\u00eb prej rreth pes\u00eb milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i naft\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00eb\u201d, thot\u00eb Birol. \u201cSot, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00ebmb\u00ebdhjet\u00eb milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb, m\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjat\u00eb dy goditjeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb naft\u00ebs t\u00eb kombinuara\u201d, shpjegoi ai.<\/p>\n

Ai gjithashtu e vler\u00ebson situat\u00ebn n\u00eb tregun e gazit si po aq t\u00eb zymt\u00eb. Birol thekson se krahasuar me situat\u00ebn pas sulmit rus ndaj Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb vitin 2022, sasia e gazit q\u00eb mungon n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn \u00ebsht\u00eb dyfishuar.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb vitet 1970, furnizimet e reduktuara me naft\u00eb \u00e7uan n\u00eb rritjen e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe rrjedhimisht n\u00eb \u00e7mimet e mallrave t\u00eb tjera, t\u00eb cilat n\u00eb fund \u00e7uan n\u00eb inflacion. N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, prodhimi industrial dhe rritja ekonomike n\u00eb vendet e industrializuara ran\u00eb.<\/p>\n

\u00c7mimet e naft\u00ebs nuk jan\u00eb rritur aq ndjesh\u00ebm sa n\u00eb vitet 1970<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb luft\u00ebs aktuale me Iranin, furnizimi me naft\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ulur me rreth tet\u00eb p\u00ebrqind p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mbylljes s\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit.<\/p>\n

\u201cFurnizimi global me naft\u00eb dikur binte vet\u00ebm me rreth pes\u00eb p\u00ebrqind. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuptim, tronditja \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb fakt m\u00eb e theksuar se n\u00eb vitet 1973 dhe 1974\u201d, thot\u00eb Klaus-J\u00fcrgen Gern i Institutit Kiel p\u00ebr Ekonomin\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n

Dallimi kryesor krahasuar me vitet 1970, sipas Gern, \u00ebsht\u00eb se \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs m\u00eb pas u rrit\u00ebn shum\u00ebfish. \u201cNga viti 1973 deri n\u00eb vitin 1974, \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs u kat\u00ebrfishuan. N\u00eb vitin 1979, ato u trefishuan p\u00ebrs\u00ebri\u201d, tha ai p\u00ebr DW. Megjith\u00ebse embargoja u hoq n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit 1974 dhe furnizimi me naft\u00eb madje u rrit.<\/p>\n

Sot, situata \u00ebsht\u00eb ndryshe. \u201cKemi par\u00eb \u00e7mime nafte mbi 100 dollar\u00eb ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, her\u00ebn e fundit pas pushtimit rus t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs\u201d, thot\u00eb Gern. Por \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs arrit\u00ebn nivele t\u00eb tilla edhe n\u00eb vitet 2007, 2008 dhe pas vitit 2011. \u201cPra, kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb krejt\u00ebsisht e re\u201d, vazhdon Gern. \u201cIshte ndryshe n\u00eb vitet 1970. At\u00ebher\u00eb, vendet konsumatore p\u00ebrballeshin me \u00e7mime me t\u00eb cilat nuk ishin t\u00eb familjarizuara.\u201d Dhe askush nuk e dinte se sa gjat\u00eb do t\u00eb mbeteshin t\u00eb larta \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, \u00e7mimet aktuale t\u00eb larta t\u00eb naft\u00ebs jan\u00eb rezultat i nj\u00eb teprice furnizimi. Kjo tepric\u00eb furnizimi u shkaktua nga bllokada e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit dhe mbyllja pasuese e objekteve t\u00eb prodhimit, jo nga d\u00ebmet e luft\u00ebs q\u00eb penguan prodhimin.<\/p>\n

Prandaj, mund t\u00eb supozohet se si furnizimi ashtu edhe \u00e7mimet do t\u00eb kthehen n\u00eb nivelet e para luft\u00ebs pas p\u00ebrfundimit t\u00eb konfliktit, beson Gern. Deutsche Bank Research gjithashtu thot\u00eb se tregjet ende nuk po parashikojn\u00eb nj\u00eb tronditje t\u00eb zgjatur t\u00eb naft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

Infrastruktura e energjis\u00eb goditet ose mbyllet<\/p>\n

Disa d\u00ebme jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb tashm\u00eb. M\u00eb shum\u00eb se 40 objekte energjetike n\u00eb n\u00ebnt\u00eb vende t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme jan\u00eb d\u00ebmtuar r\u00ebnd\u00eb n\u00eb sulmet iraniane, v\u00ebren Birol. Edhe n\u00ebse lufta do t\u00eb mbaronte dhe anijet do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb lundronin p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00ebp\u00ebr Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit, do t\u00eb duhej \u201cshum\u00eb koh\u00eb\u201d para se fushat e d\u00ebmtuara ose t\u00eb mbyllura t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe gazit t\u00eb mund t\u00eb riktheheshin n\u00eb funksion. \u201cP\u00ebr disa do t\u00eb duhen gjasht\u00eb muaj, p\u00ebr t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr\u201d, tha ai, raporton DW.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr shembull, Katari njoftoi se sulmet iraniane ndaj kompleksit m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb gazit natyror t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm (LNG) n\u00eb bot\u00eb mund t\u00eb ulnin furnizimet e tij me LNG me 17 p\u00ebrqind gjat\u00eb tre deri n\u00eb pes\u00eb viteve.<\/p>\n

Christoph R\u00fchl i Universitetit t\u00eb Kolumbias n\u00eb New York i v\u00eb k\u00ebto deklarata n\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb. Ai beson se do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballemi me nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb serioze vet\u00ebm n\u00ebse bllokada e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit zgjat shum\u00eb m\u00eb gjat\u00eb dhe n\u00ebse shkat\u00ebrrohen m\u00eb shum\u00eb objekte nafte. Lidhur me Katarin, R\u00fchl thekson, p\u00ebr shembull, se ky vend p\u00ebrb\u00ebn rreth 20 p\u00ebrqind t\u00eb furnizimit bot\u00ebror me gaz. Prandaj, ai vler\u00ebson se vet\u00ebm kat\u00ebr p\u00ebrqind e furnizimit global me gaz do t\u00eb preket nga d\u00ebmet n\u00eb Katar.<\/p>\n

Masat emergjente synojn\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebnaqin urin\u00eb p\u00ebr naft\u00eb<\/p>\n

Fakti q\u00eb tregu i naft\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb i larmish\u00ebm sot sesa ishte n\u00eb vitet 1970 kontribuon n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa vendet e OPEC-ut furnizonin m\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjysm\u00ebn e naft\u00ebs bruto n\u00eb bot\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 1973, pjesa e tyre tani ka r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb pak mbi 36 p\u00ebrqind. Shtetet e Bashkuara ishin prodhuesi m\u00eb i madh i naft\u00ebs at\u00ebher\u00eb dhe mbeten t\u00eb tilla edhe sot. Megjithat\u00eb, n\u00eb dhjet\u00eb vitet e fundit, ato kan\u00eb rritur ndjesh\u00ebm prodhimin e tyre dhe kan\u00eb furnizuar pothuajse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb (90 p\u00ebrqind) furnizimin shtes\u00eb me naft\u00eb n\u00eb tregun bot\u00ebror.<\/p>\n

Pavar\u00ebsisht krizave t\u00eb naft\u00ebs t\u00eb viteve 1970, t\u00eb cilat demonstruan me dhimbje var\u00ebsin\u00eb e Per\u00ebndimit nga Lindja e Mesme dhe nafta e saj, k\u00ebrkesa p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb burim energjie vazhdoi t\u00eb rritej. Nd\u00ebrsa furnizimi global n\u00eb vitin 1973 ishte m\u00eb pak se 60 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb, deri n\u00eb vitin 2022 arriti n\u00eb pothuajse 94 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr t\u00eb siguruar k\u00ebt\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00eb, u zbatuan masa t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme dhe rezervat e naft\u00ebs u rrit\u00ebn. Sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave nga Agjencia Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare e Energjis\u00eb (IEA), rezervat globale t\u00eb naft\u00ebs arrit\u00ebn nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb q\u00eb nga shkurti i vitit 2021 n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, kur ato arrit\u00ebn n\u00eb 8.2 miliard\u00eb fu\u00e7i.<\/p>\n

Ato b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb mundur leht\u00ebsimin e nd\u00ebrprerjeve aktuale t\u00eb furnizimit nga Lindja e Mesme. Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e rezervave t\u00eb naft\u00ebs tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb qarkullim p\u00ebr t\u00eb leht\u00ebsuar munges\u00ebn e naft\u00ebs n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme nga 11 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb n\u00eb 8 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb. P\u00ebr t\u00eb zvog\u00ebluar m\u00eb tej efektet e munges\u00ebs s\u00eb furnizimit, SHBA-t\u00eb kan\u00eb pezulluar p\u00ebrkoh\u00ebsisht sanksionet kund\u00ebr naft\u00ebs ruse dhe iraniane q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb tashm\u00eb n\u00eb det.<\/p>\n

Commerzbank Research argumenton se rezervat jan\u00eb ato q\u00eb kan\u00eb penguar rritjen e m\u00ebtejshme t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, megjith\u00ebse tregu ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb parashikonte nj\u00eb luft\u00eb me supozimin se do t\u00eb zgjaste disa muaj.<\/p>\n

\u201cBazuar n\u00eb rezervat e OECD-s\u00eb, si komerciale ashtu edhe strategjike, kjo mund t\u00eb kompensoj\u00eb humbjen e d\u00ebrgesave t\u00eb naft\u00ebs p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit p\u00ebr rreth n\u00ebnt\u00eb muaj,\u201d tha analisti i Commerzbank, Carsten Fritsch, p\u00ebr DW. Kina gjithashtu ka nd\u00ebrtuar rezerva strategjike dhe komerciale q\u00eb mund t\u00eb mbulojn\u00eb nevojat e saj t\u00eb importit nga Lindja e Mesme p\u00ebr rreth shtat\u00eb muaj, shtoi Fritsch.<\/p>\n

Askush nuk e di se sa do t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb lufta me Iranin. Presidenti amerikan Donald Trump pranoi s\u00eb fundmi se u zhvilluan bisedime \u201cproduktive\u201d me Iranin, por Irani e mohoi k\u00ebt\u00eb. Kjo e b\u00ebn jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb pasigurt se si do t\u00eb zhvillohet furnizimi me naft\u00eb dhe gaz n\u00eb planin afatgjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Edhe n\u00ebse nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb aq keq sa ishte n\u00eb vitet 1970, ekonomia tashm\u00eb i ka ndjer\u00eb efektet e nj\u00eb lufte me Iranin: \u201cDo t\u00eb shohim dy gj\u00ebra: inflacioni do t\u00eb rritet n\u00eb afat t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr dhe prodhimi do t\u00eb zvog\u00eblohet sepse konsumi i naft\u00ebs do t\u00eb ulet sa her\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur\u201d, thot\u00eb Gern. \/tesheshi.com\/<\/p>\n

\n

Burimi: tesheshi<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Situata aktuale n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme dhe \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs q\u00eb po rriten me shpejt\u00ebsi po sjellin n\u00eb kujtes\u00eb dy krizat e naft\u00ebs t\u00eb viteve 1973 dhe 1979. N\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, vendet arabe t\u00eb naft\u00ebs ul\u00ebn furnizimin dhe \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs u rrit\u00ebn ndjesh\u00ebm. Shum\u00eb vende per\u00ebndimore u detyruan t\u00eb vendosnin masa shtr\u00ebnguese. Gjermania, nd\u00ebr […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":104470,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-104471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104471","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104471"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104471\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104470"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/al\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}