Monday, April 4th 2016
Washington’s plans to increase its military presence in Eastern Europe have been welcomed by experts in Bulgaria and Romania as strengthening NATO’s eastern flank.
The announcement that the US will deploy another armored brigade to Eastern Europe has been welcomed by security experts in Bucharest and Sofia as a fresh sign of its commitment to NATO’s collective security in the face of Russia’s assertiveness in the region.
Washington last week announced plans to deploy some 4,500 troops, which will be rotated through Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland and Romania in joint military exercises.
“This Army implementation plan continues to demonstrate our strong and balanced approach to reassuring our NATO Allies and Partners in the wake of an aggressive Russia in Eastern Europe and elsewhere,” a Pentagon press release said.
In Bulgaria, news about the US plans coincided with the government’s approval of a major military overhaul worth over 1.2 billion euros.
Bulgarian MPs have given a green light to three investment projects, buying new fighter jets and multi-functional patrol ships as well extending the lifespan of a minimum of ten MiG-29 jets.
While Bulgarian leaders have hailed the long-anticipated decision to modernize the army in line with Bulgaria’s NATO and EU commitments, the Pentagon move has passed off almost unnoticed.
Surprisingly, no reaction came even from the Bulgarian Socialist Party, BSP, and the pro-Russian far right party ATAKA, which traditionally oppose any moves to confront Russia.
The Bulgarian Ministry of Defence told BIRN that according to an agreement between the governments of Bulgaria and the US from 2006, every year joint training events are held in Bulgaria, which “help increase the operational compliance between the armed forces of the two countries”.
The ministry added that in line with the trend towards increasing joint military activities among the NATO countries and partners, in 2016 over 30 trainings will be carried out in Bulgaria, involving land forces, the air force and navy.
No official reaction has come to the US move from Romania, either, which has repeatedly asked in the past for a stronger NATO presence in Eastern Europe.
Analysts in the region have hailed Pentagon’s announcement, however.
“Any step taken by either the US or NATO as a whole enhances security in the region. The presence of forward troops across the eastern flanks of the Alliance is a strong deterrent to any possible Russian provocative moves, which are most likely to occur in the Baltics on the border of Russia,” Paul Ciocoiu, the editor of the regional security publication Balkandefense.com, said.
“Moscow is now becoming more aware its provocative actions and aggression in Ukraine has awakened an Alliance which is now embarking on measures designed to adapt to the very situation Russia itself has created,” he added.
“Despite some assertive moves and the propagandistic messages it sends out, Moscow is now becoming more and more aware that Eastern Europe is off its radar,” Ciocoiu continued.
Yordan Bojilov, director of the Sofia security forum, said the US decision to boost its military presence has two key dimensions.
“The most serious problem is the uncertainty in Russia’s behavior”, Bojilov told BIRN, adding that the other challenge is the escalated tension between Turkey and Russia, which may lead to the necessity of NATO’s engagement.
Bojilov noted, however, that there is no direct “conventional military” threat for Bulgaria. He explained that Pentagon’s decision to position an extra armored brigade on Europe’s Eastern flank “will not change the global equation” and it is more likely a signal that new “red lines” are being drawn.
Russia’s reaction to the US move is not creating too many concerns in Romania also. „Moscow is now becoming more aware its provocative actions and aggressions in Ukraine has awakened an Alliance which is now embarking upon measures designed to
adapt to this very situation Russia itself has created (…) Moscow anyhow, despite some assertive moves and the propagandistic messages it sends out, is now becoming more and more aware Eastern Europe is off its radar,” says military analyst Paul Ciocoiu.
But Russian officials are signaling that Moscow could react to the US plans to deploy new armored units to Eastern Europe.
“We are not passive observers, we consistently take all the military measures we consider necessary in order to counterbalance this reinforced presence that is not justified by anything,” Aleksandr Grushko, Moscow’s permanent representative at NATO, said in a TV interview on Thursday. “Certainly, we’ll respond totally asymmetrically.”
Grushko did not elaborate on his statement, but said Russia’s actions would correspond to its “understanding of the extent of the military threat, would not be extremely expensive, but also highly effective.”