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Analistler, ABD’nin \u0130ran’la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan daha zay\u0131f \u00e7\u0131kma riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu konusunda uyar\u0131yor<\/p>\n
ABD’nin \u0130ran’a sald\u0131rmas\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7 ay sonra, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump askeri sava\u015flar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu kazanm\u0131\u015f olabilir ancak Washington’da giderek daha fazla sorulan soru ba\u015fka bir soru: Sava\u015f\u0131 m\u0131 kaybediyor?<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fc devam ederken, n\u00fckleer program\u0131 aktif kal\u0131rken ve Tahran’daki rejim sars\u0131lmazken, analistler Trump’\u0131n askeri ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bir siyasi zafere ve jeopolitik zafere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme becerisini sorguluyor.<\/p>\n
“Toplam zafer” iddialar\u0131 daha az ses \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor ve \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma, k\u0131r\u0131lgan m\u00fczakereler ve s\u00fcrekli yeni ABD sald\u0131r\u0131 tehditleri aras\u0131nda belirsiz bir a\u015famaya girdi\u011finden daha az inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131.<\/p>\n
Uzmanlara g\u00f6re, ABD ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki m\u00fcttefiklerinin daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n ise -ekonomik ve askeri a\u00e7\u0131dan sert bir darbe almas\u0131na ra\u011fmen- d\u00fcnyan\u0131n petrol ve do\u011fal gaz arz\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc tehdit edebilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle daha fazla stratejik n\u00fcfuz kazanabilmesi riski var.<\/p>\n
“\u00dc\u00e7 ay ge\u00e7ti ve giderek daha \u00e7ok bir sava\u015fa benziyor K\u0131sa s\u00fcrmesi gerekiyordu, ancak uzun vadeli bir stratejik ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor” dedi, Amerikal\u0131 eski Orta Do\u011fu m\u00fczakerecisi Aaron David Miller.<\/p>\n
Trump i\u00e7in “kaybeden” alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n siyasi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ordusunun hen\u00fcz \u0130ran’a hedeflerini empoze etmedi\u011fi bir durumla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu etiketi rakiplerine kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k s\u0131k kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Analistler, bunun Trump’\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle de ilk d\u00f6neminde iptal etti\u011fi 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir anla\u015fma konusunda uzla\u015fmaya daha az istekli olabilece\u011fine inan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray, askeri operasyonun ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funda \u0131srar ediyor. S\u00f6zc\u00fc Olivia Wales, ABD’nin “t\u00fcm askeri hedefleri kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131” belirtti. Ancak sava\u015f, Trump i\u00e7in siyasi maliyetler yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kampanya s\u0131ras\u0131nda Amerika’y\u0131 gereksiz askeri m\u00fcdahaleye dahil etmeyece\u011fine s\u00f6z vermi\u015fti, ancak \u015fimdi artan yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131, azalan pop\u00fclerlik ve Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki ara se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkesin \u00fczerinden alt\u0131 haftadan fazla s\u00fcre ge\u00e7tikten sonra, baz\u0131 analistler Trump’\u0131n yaln\u0131zca iki se\u00e7ene\u011fi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor: kusurlu bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 kabul etmek veya askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yeniden t\u0131rmand\u0131rmak. daha uzun bir kriz riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n
Bahsedilen senaryolardan biri, Trump’\u0131n siyasi olarak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan \u00e7ekilmeden \u00f6nce “nihai zafer” olarak sunabilece\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131. Ancak Amerikan ba\u015fkan\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek\u00e7ilere sahip olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Trump y\u00f6netiminin eski dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131ndan Alexander Gray, \u0130ran’\u0131n askeri yeteneklerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n “stratejik bir ba\u015far\u0131” olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ve sava\u015f\u0131n K\u00f6rfez Arap devletlerini ABD’ye yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak Trump’\u0131n hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faretleri giderek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geliyor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma, tahmin etti\u011fi alt\u0131 haftal\u0131k s\u00fcrenin iki kat\u0131 kadar uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in medyaya ve ele\u015ftirmenlere sert sert \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk a\u015famada, ABD ve \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u0130ran’\u0131n f\u00fcze cephaneli\u011fine ciddi hasar verdi ve \u00f6nemli askeri fig\u00fcrleri ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak Tahran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 kapatarak ve \u0130srail ile Basra K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki Arap kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131 vurarak kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi.<\/p>\n
ABD’nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 abluka bile Tahran’\u0131 geri ad\u0131m atmaya zorlamad\u0131. Trump’\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuzunun s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve rejimin zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi ana hedefler hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi.<\/p>\n
Bu arada \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki silahl\u0131 gruplara verdi\u011fi deste\u011fin durdurulmas\u0131 hedefine de ula\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131. Sava\u015f, Orta Do\u011fu’nun \u00f6tesinde, ABD’nin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya m\u00fcdahil olmay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde reddeden Avrupal\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleriyle de gerginlik yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Analistlere g\u00f6re \u00c7in ve Rusya, ABD’nin \u0130ran’\u0131n asimetrik taktikleri ve ABD cephaneli\u011finin t\u00fckenmesi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi zay\u0131fl\u0131klardan ders al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Brookings Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’nden ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 Robert Kagan, bu sava\u015f\u0131n k\u00fcresel prestije ciddi bir darbe indirebilece\u011fini savunuyor. ABD’nin. The Atlantic dergisine yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yorumda, “Ne stat\u00fckoya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olacak, ne de verilen zarar\u0131 telafi edecek nihai bir Amerikan zaferi olacak.” diye yazd\u0131. kare<\/p>\n
Kaynak: prizrenpost<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Analistler, ABD’nin \u0130ran’la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan daha zay\u0131f \u00e7\u0131kma riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu konusunda uyar\u0131yor ABD’nin \u0130ran’a sald\u0131rmas\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7 ay sonra, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump askeri sava\u015flar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu kazanm\u0131\u015f olabilir ancak Washington’da giderek daha fazla sorulan soru ba\u015fka bir soru: Sava\u015f\u0131 m\u0131 kaybediyor? \u0130ran’\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fc devam ederken, n\u00fckleer program\u0131 aktif kal\u0131rken ve Tahran’daki rejim sars\u0131lmazken, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47551,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[179],"class_list":["post-47550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","tag-aktuel"],"views":4,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47550"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47550\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47552,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47550\/revisions\/47552"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prizrenpost.com\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}