Extreme weather events typically associated with extreme global warming could occur even if temperature rise is limited to two degrees Celsius.

A new study points out that deadly floods in cities, devastating forest fires and catastrophic droughts in key agricultural regions could strike more often than previously thought in a scenario where temperatures stabilize at around two degrees Celsius above levels. pre-industrial.

According to the study’s lead author, Emanuele Bevacqua, the results show that impacts on particularly socially important sectors could be severe even under moderate warming.

The researchers analyzed fifty climate models, the same ones used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Unlike usual reports that are based on calculated averages, this study explored the patterns separately to identify the range of possible outcomes.

The team focused on three sensitive sectors: densely populated areas, grain-producing regions and forests. The results published in the journal “Nature” show that warming of two degrees Celsius could cause climate events that vary widely in intensity.

In urban areas, rainfall could increase by four to fifteen percent, causing massive flooding due to limited drainage capacities. The worst-case scenarios for these areas were more extreme than expected under three degrees Celsius of warming, especially in India and Central Africa.

As for agriculture, about one in four models showed that droughts under two degrees Celsius of warming could be as severe as those expected in the four degrees Celsius scenario. The most affected regions include the Indian subcontinent, East Asia and North Central America.

Meanwhile, in forested regions there is a one-in-five probability that fire-favoring weather will become as intense as in three degrees Celsius warming, endangering critical carbon reservoirs in Canada, Russia and the Amazon.

Although the chance of these extreme outcomes occurring below two degrees Celsius is low, researchers stress that they should be taken consideration for planning adaptation measures.

Focusing only on model averages can create a false sense of security. These findings reinforce the urgency to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius to avoid the nasty surprises that nature can bring.

Experts suggest that in addition to reducing emissions, better water management policies could mitigate some of the consequences in the crop production sector. /tesheshi.com/

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Source: prizrenpost