American hegemony has given way to a global order based on rivalry and competition between a few great powers, where a stable and codified set of rules no longer exists. Instead, only economic, technological and military power is decisive – a power that China is amassing at a much faster rate than many observers realize.

The era when the global order rested on the United States’ monopoly on military power, economic power and the value system is over, bringing an end to Europe’s long period of stability. The world has become significantly more turbulent and uncertain, and the near future is expected to bring even more instability.

In the past, the contours of the world order were clearly reflected in the G7/G8 format, which brought together the main industrialized countries. But now there are rival formats, such as the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, and the BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and about six other member countries, as well as ten partner countries), which are mainly made up of developing economies. consistent and codified rules. Instead, economic, technological and military power are decisive, which means a greater risk of conflicts, even wars between nuclear powers.

This new order is not the only stable one. The wars in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf, as well as the civil war in Myanmar, which no one seems to be seriously trying to stop, prove this. Also, the constant threat of a war between China and Taiwan or on the Korean Peninsula remains present. The two open wars, coupled with Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have already had a significant impact on the global economy, due to rising costs of oil, gas, chemical fertilizers and other vital commodities. Many people are losing their lives in both conflicts and the risk of escalation continues to grow.

It is not surprising that Ukraine and Iran are attracting the most attention of public opinion. However, these conflicts also have the character of wars through third parties (proxy wars), because their strategic implications cannot be understood without taking into account the historical rivalry between the United States, the current dominant power, and China, the rising challenger. China is keeping a low profile and quietly gaining ground as the United States grapples with difficulties in the Persian Gulf and clashes with longtime friends and allies.

This superpower clash is a duel between two profoundly different systems that will shape the 21st century. The United States has a highly competitive market economy and is the world’s oldest democracy, although it is currently facing the dominance of technology industry oligopolies.

In contrast, China is a centralized state, ruled by an all-powerful party that can exercise absolute control over the economy, military, and society. Within a single generation, it has transformed from an extremely poor and underdeveloped country to a serious contender for the top spot in the world rankings. This is a colossal success no matter how you try to interpret it.

Chinese communism’s most masterful blow came after the madness of Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution. By maintaining absolute power and party control, Deng Xiaoping allowed a rapidly growing private sector to flourish within the existing state-controlled economy, which eventually surpassed even the United States in many industrial sectors. The result, supported by a giant internal market, is a kind of communist hypercapitalism.

The Chinese model stands in stark contrast to that of the Soviet Union, which from the beginning was an anti-capitalist project, driven largely by ideology. The Chinese aimed at both preserving their roots and taking as a model the most successful capitalist economy in history; and they succeeded. This seemingly paradoxical approach has yielded remarkable results and continues to yield today.

China owes its success to several factors, including a domestic market that enables large economies of scale, huge infrastructure investments, a construction boom, accelerated urbanization, fierce competition in the domestic market, and massive state investment in research and development. The Chinese state is firmly focused on its strategic objectives, particularly strengthening and modernizing the military, as well as winning the race for global supremacy in technologies such as renewable energy and artificial intelligence. No one can deny that the Chinese Communist Party’s ability for long-term planning and its determination to get to the top have created an extremely successful dual system.

Whether the United States will be able to withstand the Chinese challenge to its supremacy—as it once did with the Soviet Union—remains to be seen. The answer will depend in part on whether they continue to depart from the model of democratic capitalism they themselves perfected. The current trend toward an authoritarian oligopoly of private tech magnates and crony capitalism is a gift to the Chinese Communist Party.

But the answer will also depend on whether the Chinese leadership resists the temptation to use force against Taiwan. If China sticks to its successful model, it can and will be able to achieve most of its objectives through peaceful means, over time. However, it will have to avoid the illusion that history unfolds according to the laws that the Chinese Communist Party claims to understand. Unforeseen circumstances and misjudgment are always possible, and their consequences can be extremely costly. Just ask Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

Source: prizrenpost