Global warming may be accelerated even further by the very changes that rising temperatures are causing on the planet, warns a new study. According to research, melting permafrost, more frequent and more intense forest fires, as well as warming wetlands and lakes, are releasing large amounts of methane and carbon dioxide stored in soil and vegetation. These processes create so-called "feedback cycles" through which warming causes changes that, in turn, produce more greenhouse gases and further accelerate warming. Researchers estimate that by the end of this century, emissions from these natural sources could increase global warming by 20% to 30%, adding about 0.2°C to 0.4°C to the global average temperature. The final figure will also depend on how quickly countries reduce their use of fossil fuels. Even small changes in the average global temperature can have big consequences, increasing the risk of extreme heat waves, floods, droughts and other climate disasters. Scientists have long warned about these processes, but emissions from natural sources are often not fully accounted for. in climate predictions. "This hidden multiplier is missing from the models that guide climate policy. This means that the models may underestimate the warming we face and overestimate the amount of carbon we can still emit," said Sam Abernethy, the researcher who led the research. The authors stress that rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions remain crucial. In the most optimistic scenario, where emissions fall rapidly, these natural processes would add about 0.2°C of warming. In the most pessimistic scenario, the figure could reach 0.4°C. Another study author, Stanford University scientist Rob Jackson, said changes in natural carbon cycles are already being seen "in real time". climate policies," he said. Meanwhile, current government policies are expected to drive global warming to around 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels, according to the Climate Action Tracker, a scenario that would have dire consequences for billions of people, including rising sea levels and loss of agricultural production. Researchers warn that the more the planet warms, the greater the risk that these natural processes will release even more many greenhouse gases. For this reason, every fraction of a degree matters, and reducing emissions from fossil fuels becomes ever more urgent.

Source: prizrenpost